May 27, 2009
Mitch Battros reports:
Solar Cycle 24 has begun - and it has been predicted by NASA, NOAA and ESA to be up
to 50% stronger than its 'record breaking' predecessor Cycle 23 which produced the
largest solar flare ever recorded. The Sun will reach its 'apex' (maximum) in late 2011 into
2012.
"I believe it will be the magnetic influence produced by the Sun which will usher in what is
described by our ancient ancestors as "the transition" bringing us to a new state-of-being".
http://www.earthchangesmedia.com
May 10, 2009
Solar cycle 24 update HERE
March 27, 2009
Solar storm could cause planetary disaster at any time, warn scientists
Daily Mail, U.K. HERE.
January 12, 2009
As we discussed in the Complete Idiots Guide to 2012, cycle 24 can be trouble for 2012.
This week NASA has officially warned of possible catastrophic sun flare activity -
discussion document released.
December 2, 2008.
A New Sun Spells New Trouble.
Our Sun is muscling up again. According to NASA, solar cycle 24 is showing increased
activity. Considering that the Sun is to blame for some unfavorable climate changes on the
Earth, the coming decade could spell more trouble for our planet.
Link: Earth Changes TV at: http://www.earthchangesmedia.com/cgi-bin/artman2/search.cgi
..........................................
December 1, 2008
A solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 3rd or 4th.
Credit: SOHO Extreme UV
Link: http://spaceweather.com/
............................................
January 10, 2008. (Continued from Image above)
"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of
Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.
Doug Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, likens
sunspot 981 "to the first robin of spring. There's still snow on the ground, but the seasons
are changing." Last year, Biesecker chaired the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, an
international group of experts from many universities and government agencies. "We
predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would begin around March 2008 and it looks like we weren't
far off," he says.
Right: The first auroras of the new solar cycle, photographed Jan. 4, 2008, by Calvin Hall
of Palmer, Alaska. [more]
The onset of a new solar cycle is significant because of our increasingly space-based
technological society.
"Solar storms can disable satellites that we depend on for weather forecasts and GPS
navigation," says Hathaway. Radio bursts from solar flares can directly interfere with cell
phone reception while coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hitting Earth can cause electrical
power outages. "The most famous example is the Quebec outage of 1989, which left some
Canadians without power for as much as six days."
Air travel can be affected, too.
Every year, intercontinental flights carry thousands of passengers over Earth’s poles. It's
the shortest distance between, say, New York and Tokyo or Beijing and Chicago. In 1999,
United Airlines made just twelve trips over the Arctic. By 2005, the number of flights had
ballooned to 1,402. Other airlines report similar growth.
"Solar storms have a big effect on polar regions of our planet," says Steve Hill of the Space
Weather Prediction Center. "When airplanes fly over the poles during solar storms, they
can experience radio blackouts, navigation errors and computer reboots all caused by
space radiation." Avoiding the poles during solar storms solves the problem, but it costs
extra time, money and fuel to "take the long way around."
Now for the good news: More solar storms also means more auroras—"the greatest show
on Earth." During the last solar maximum, Northern Lights were spotted as far south as
Arizona, Florida and California. Not so long ago, only visitors to the Arctic regularly
enjoyed auroras, but with increasing attention to space weather and constantly improving
forecasts, millions of people at all latitudes will know when to go out and look.
Much of this is still years away. "Intense solar activity won't begin immediately," notes
Hathaway. "Solar cycles usually take a few years to build from solar minimum (where we
are now) to Solar Max, expected in 2011 or 2012."
It's a slow journey, but we're on our way.
Link: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/10jan_solarcycle24.htm
................................................
CONSENSUS STATEMENT OF THE SOLAR CYCLE 24 PREDICTION PANEL
March 20, 2007
The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel anticipates the solar minimum marking the onset of
Cycle 24 will occur in March, 2008 (±6 months). The panel reached this conclusion due to
the absence of expected signatures of minimum-like conditions on the Sun at the time of
the panel meeting in March, 2007: there have been no high-latitude sunspots observed with
the expected Cycle 24 polarity; the configuration of the large scale white-light corona has
not yet relaxed to a simple dipole; the heliospheric current sheet has not yet flattened; and
activity measures, such as cosmic ray flux, radio flux, and sunspot number, have not yet
reached typical solar minimum values.
In light of the expected long interval until the onset of Cycle 24, the Prediction Panel has
been unable to resolve a sufficient number of questions to reach a single, consensus
prediction for the amplitude of the cycle. The deliberations of the panel supported two
possible peak amplitudes for the smoothed International Sunspot Number (Ri): Ri = 140
±20 and Ri = 90 ±10. Important questions to be resolved in the year following solar
minimum will lead to a consensus decision by the panel.
The panel agrees solar maximum will occur near October, 2011 for the large cycle
(Ri=140) case and August, 2012 for the small cycle (Ri=90) prediction.
Link: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/Statement_01.html
Additional NASA data: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html
Mitch Battros reports:
Solar Cycle 24 has begun - and it has been predicted by NASA, NOAA and ESA to be up
to 50% stronger than its 'record breaking' predecessor Cycle 23 which produced the
largest solar flare ever recorded. The Sun will reach its 'apex' (maximum) in late 2011 into
2012.
"I believe it will be the magnetic influence produced by the Sun which will usher in what is
described by our ancient ancestors as "the transition" bringing us to a new state-of-being".
http://www.earthchangesmedia.com
May 10, 2009
Solar cycle 24 update HERE
March 27, 2009
Solar storm could cause planetary disaster at any time, warn scientists
Daily Mail, U.K. HERE.
January 12, 2009
As we discussed in the Complete Idiots Guide to 2012, cycle 24 can be trouble for 2012.
This week NASA has officially warned of possible catastrophic sun flare activity -
discussion document released.
December 2, 2008.
A New Sun Spells New Trouble.
Our Sun is muscling up again. According to NASA, solar cycle 24 is showing increased
activity. Considering that the Sun is to blame for some unfavorable climate changes on the
Earth, the coming decade could spell more trouble for our planet.
Link: Earth Changes TV at: http://www.earthchangesmedia.com/cgi-bin/artman2/search.cgi
..........................................
December 1, 2008
A solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 3rd or 4th.
Credit: SOHO Extreme UV
Link: http://spaceweather.com/
............................................
January 10, 2008. (Continued from Image above)
"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of
Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.
Doug Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, likens
sunspot 981 "to the first robin of spring. There's still snow on the ground, but the seasons
are changing." Last year, Biesecker chaired the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, an
international group of experts from many universities and government agencies. "We
predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would begin around March 2008 and it looks like we weren't
far off," he says.
Right: The first auroras of the new solar cycle, photographed Jan. 4, 2008, by Calvin Hall
of Palmer, Alaska. [more]
The onset of a new solar cycle is significant because of our increasingly space-based
technological society.
"Solar storms can disable satellites that we depend on for weather forecasts and GPS
navigation," says Hathaway. Radio bursts from solar flares can directly interfere with cell
phone reception while coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hitting Earth can cause electrical
power outages. "The most famous example is the Quebec outage of 1989, which left some
Canadians without power for as much as six days."
Air travel can be affected, too.
Every year, intercontinental flights carry thousands of passengers over Earth’s poles. It's
the shortest distance between, say, New York and Tokyo or Beijing and Chicago. In 1999,
United Airlines made just twelve trips over the Arctic. By 2005, the number of flights had
ballooned to 1,402. Other airlines report similar growth.
"Solar storms have a big effect on polar regions of our planet," says Steve Hill of the Space
Weather Prediction Center. "When airplanes fly over the poles during solar storms, they
can experience radio blackouts, navigation errors and computer reboots all caused by
space radiation." Avoiding the poles during solar storms solves the problem, but it costs
extra time, money and fuel to "take the long way around."
Now for the good news: More solar storms also means more auroras—"the greatest show
on Earth." During the last solar maximum, Northern Lights were spotted as far south as
Arizona, Florida and California. Not so long ago, only visitors to the Arctic regularly
enjoyed auroras, but with increasing attention to space weather and constantly improving
forecasts, millions of people at all latitudes will know when to go out and look.
Much of this is still years away. "Intense solar activity won't begin immediately," notes
Hathaway. "Solar cycles usually take a few years to build from solar minimum (where we
are now) to Solar Max, expected in 2011 or 2012."
It's a slow journey, but we're on our way.
Link: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/10jan_solarcycle24.htm
................................................
CONSENSUS STATEMENT OF THE SOLAR CYCLE 24 PREDICTION PANEL
March 20, 2007
The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel anticipates the solar minimum marking the onset of
Cycle 24 will occur in March, 2008 (±6 months). The panel reached this conclusion due to
the absence of expected signatures of minimum-like conditions on the Sun at the time of
the panel meeting in March, 2007: there have been no high-latitude sunspots observed with
the expected Cycle 24 polarity; the configuration of the large scale white-light corona has
not yet relaxed to a simple dipole; the heliospheric current sheet has not yet flattened; and
activity measures, such as cosmic ray flux, radio flux, and sunspot number, have not yet
reached typical solar minimum values.
In light of the expected long interval until the onset of Cycle 24, the Prediction Panel has
been unable to resolve a sufficient number of questions to reach a single, consensus
prediction for the amplitude of the cycle. The deliberations of the panel supported two
possible peak amplitudes for the smoothed International Sunspot Number (Ri): Ri = 140
±20 and Ri = 90 ±10. Important questions to be resolved in the year following solar
minimum will lead to a consensus decision by the panel.
The panel agrees solar maximum will occur near October, 2011 for the large cycle
(Ri=140) case and August, 2012 for the small cycle (Ri=90) prediction.
Link: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/Statement_01.html
Additional NASA data: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html
The Sun's activity and the all
important cycle 24 has started.
important cycle 24 has started.
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2012 DEBATE
Above: Images of the first sunspot of Solar Cycle 24 taken by the NASA/ESA Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). [Larger image] [Movie]
Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles. Lately, we've been experiencing the low
ebb, "very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind," says Hathaway. "Solar minimum
is upon us."
The previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar
storms. That cycle decayed as usual to the present quiet leaving solar physicists little to do
other than wonder, when would the next cycle begin?
Sign up for EXPRESS SCIENCE NEWS delivery
The answer is now.
"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains
Hathaway. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared
to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude
and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear
higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.
The sunspot that appeared on January 4th fits both these criteria. It was high latitude (30
degrees N) and magnetically reversed. NOAA named the spot AR10981, or "sunspot 981"
for short.
Sunspot 981 was small--only about as wide as Earth, which counts as small on the grand
scale of the sun--and it has already faded away. But its three day appearance on Jan. 4-6
was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway.
For the remainder of this report, jump to January 10, 2008 below
................................................
Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). [Larger image] [Movie]
Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles. Lately, we've been experiencing the low
ebb, "very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind," says Hathaway. "Solar minimum
is upon us."
The previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar
storms. That cycle decayed as usual to the present quiet leaving solar physicists little to do
other than wonder, when would the next cycle begin?
Sign up for EXPRESS SCIENCE NEWS delivery
The answer is now.
"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains
Hathaway. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared
to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude
and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear
higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.
The sunspot that appeared on January 4th fits both these criteria. It was high latitude (30
degrees N) and magnetically reversed. NOAA named the spot AR10981, or "sunspot 981"
for short.
Sunspot 981 was small--only about as wide as Earth, which counts as small on the grand
scale of the sun--and it has already faded away. But its three day appearance on Jan. 4-6
was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway.
For the remainder of this report, jump to January 10, 2008 below
................................................
N.A.S.A. and Prof Michio Kaku now on the same page as The Complete
Idiots Guide to 2012: Solar Cycle 24 which was predicted by them as
being quiet now agree there is potential for 2012 to be very serious.
January 2, 2010.
By Colin Andrews
Ironically on November 13 2009 Synthia and I as co-authors of the book The Complete
Idiots Guide to 2012 were invited onto Fox and Friends national television show to discuss
the book and what implications we thought there were associatedf with the 2012 Mayan
Prophecy. This was to be a lead into the launch of the movie 2012, launched the next day.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2009/11/09/truth-doomsday-hype/
Logistics and timing meant the slot was in fact filled by Prof Michio Kaku.
The Professor appeared live and as expected debunked 2012 in its entirety and finally laughed
saying ‘I would not quit your day job”.
In a 360 degree turn around NASA and Prof. Kaku appearing in a much more serious
demenor now with an unusualy off balance presenter Bill Hemmor to say:
“…………You see us scientists made a mistake, we thought that the next solar cycles
was going to be quiet. Well some of our data was off by a factor of 20 and that’s why
we are issuing this alert now. We made a mistake, the next cycle (24) peaking around
2012 WILL BE MUCH MORE SERIOUS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
Now in the past we dodged the bullet because we didn’t have that many satellites up
there 11, 22 years ago. Back in 1990 we didn’t have that many space satellites up
there…… Lets hope this is a dud, lets hope nothing happens, however what if, what if
our communication satellites are wiped out billions of business activities could be
jeopardized”……..
This statement now puts NASA back to where they were when we researched for the book
and as we reported on page 197 of the book - also see The 2012 debate on this website.
==========
The gambit of announcements:
Dec 21 2006 – Cycle 24 is going to be very big:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/21dec_cycle24.htm
Jan 9 2009 – Power Grid could be closed down for months or years:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,478024,00.html
May 29, 2009 – Cycle 24 will be quietest since 1928:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm
Idiots Guide to 2012: Solar Cycle 24 which was predicted by them as
being quiet now agree there is potential for 2012 to be very serious.
January 2, 2010.
By Colin Andrews
Ironically on November 13 2009 Synthia and I as co-authors of the book The Complete
Idiots Guide to 2012 were invited onto Fox and Friends national television show to discuss
the book and what implications we thought there were associatedf with the 2012 Mayan
Prophecy. This was to be a lead into the launch of the movie 2012, launched the next day.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2009/11/09/truth-doomsday-hype/
Logistics and timing meant the slot was in fact filled by Prof Michio Kaku.
The Professor appeared live and as expected debunked 2012 in its entirety and finally laughed
saying ‘I would not quit your day job”.
In a 360 degree turn around NASA and Prof. Kaku appearing in a much more serious
demenor now with an unusualy off balance presenter Bill Hemmor to say:
“…………You see us scientists made a mistake, we thought that the next solar cycles
was going to be quiet. Well some of our data was off by a factor of 20 and that’s why
we are issuing this alert now. We made a mistake, the next cycle (24) peaking around
2012 WILL BE MUCH MORE SERIOUS THAN WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
Now in the past we dodged the bullet because we didn’t have that many satellites up
there 11, 22 years ago. Back in 1990 we didn’t have that many space satellites up
there…… Lets hope this is a dud, lets hope nothing happens, however what if, what if
our communication satellites are wiped out billions of business activities could be
jeopardized”……..
This statement now puts NASA back to where they were when we researched for the book
and as we reported on page 197 of the book - also see The 2012 debate on this website.
==========
The gambit of announcements:
Dec 21 2006 – Cycle 24 is going to be very big:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/21dec_cycle24.htm
Jan 9 2009 – Power Grid could be closed down for months or years:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,478024,00.html
May 29, 2009 – Cycle 24 will be quietest since 1928:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm
| First Registered M-Class Solar Flare just took place (Cycle 24) M2.3 Solar Flare / Eastern Limb 01/19/2010 by Kevin VE3EN at 13:55 M2.3 Flare - The first registered M-Class flare of Cycle 24 has taken place at 13:41 UTC Tuesday around the new region about to rotate into view on the Eastern Limb. Several C-Class flares have taken place as well. This event did cause a G1 Radio Blackout according to NOAA. M2.3 Captured by STEREO Behind (Tuesday) http://solarcycle24.com/ |
| Solar X-rays: Geomagnetic Field: |
|
Status of the Sun updated every ten minutes
| Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation HERE |
Wow! The Sun has become hyper-dynamic the past few days.
February 7, 2010
Solar active region 1045 has grown at an extraordinary rate the past 48 hours and has
unleashed multiple solar flares including a major M6 x-ray flare on Feb. 7, 2010 at 0230 UT.
Below are photos of region 1045 taken at 2058 UT on Feb 6, 2010 during an M1.6 x-ray
flare.
There have been many radio bursts as well. Below are some specimens captured on our
decametric radio telescope array here in New Mexico.
http://spaceweather.com/images2010/08feb10/midi512_blank.gif?PHPSESSID=50iastcn1p77l
h58ud1o9e3ao3
February 7, 2010
Solar active region 1045 has grown at an extraordinary rate the past 48 hours and has
unleashed multiple solar flares including a major M6 x-ray flare on Feb. 7, 2010 at 0230 UT.
Below are photos of region 1045 taken at 2058 UT on Feb 6, 2010 during an M1.6 x-ray
flare.
There have been many radio bursts as well. Below are some specimens captured on our
decametric radio telescope array here in New Mexico.
http://spaceweather.com/images2010/08feb10/midi512_blank.gif?PHPSESSID=50iastcn1p77l
h58ud1o9e3ao3
| Region 1045 revved up in last few hours. ============================================================= |
| POPULATION CLIMATE HUMAN HEALTH ECONOMY ENVIRONMENT TEMPERATURE SOLAR EARTH CHANGES |