Climate Change Continued
Scientists 'stunned' by Arctic ice behaviour
Margaret Munro ,  CanWest News Service
Published: Wednesday, October 03, 2007

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The giant Ayles Ice Island south of the North Pole has broken in two, one of several
"remarkable" occurrences in a year that has seen a record-shattering retreat of the
Arctic ice.

"We have people here in the ice service with over 40 years experience and they're all
stunned," says Doug Bancroft, director of the Canadian Ice Service, of the
extraordinary behaviour of Arctic ice this summer.

"They've never seen anything like this."

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The break-up of the ice island last month was just one of several highlights of a
summer season that also saw the Northwest Passage open up for the second year in
a row.

There has been the occasional summer in the past where the passage was almost
ice-free in late summer, making it possible to navigate the fabled passage in a small
vessel, says Bancroft.

But to see it happen two years in a row is unprecedented in four decades of
record-keeping, he says.

Just two per cent of the 2,300-kilometre-long passage had sea ice at the peak of the
ice retreat in mid-September this year, compared to the normal 14 per cent, Bancroft
says.

"Normally you'd encounter ice for 400 kilometres of that, this year there was only 20
kilometres," he said.

The Ayles Ice Island, a Manhattan-sized chunk of ice that cracked off an ancient ice
shelf at the north end of Ellesmere Island in 2005, also had an incredible summer.
After spending more than a year struck in the pack ice at the north end of Ellesmere,
the giant slab started moving and sailed into a channel that is normally blocked by ice
year-round. The island, which hit a top speed of 10 nautical miles a day, cracked in
half in early September and the two pieces are now on opposite sides of a small
island in the Arctic archipelago. They are now about 360 nautical miles from where
they originated, says Bancroft.

The ice service uses satellites and a beacon to follow the islands, which have now
headed into a "graveyard" of multi-year ice far from shipping lanes and oil, gas and
mining operations. Bancroft is, however, reluctant to say they won't break loose and
become a potential menace in future.

"2007 was such an usual summer in so many respects that people aren't making
forecasts about the fate and evolution of very large chunks of ice such as this," says
Bancroft, noting how the Arctic ice is changing - and melting - much faster than
climate models predicted.

"If you look at what happened in the last three years, it closely resembles the
absolutely worst-case scenario, but about 20, 25 years ahead of schedule," he says,
referring to models created by international teams of scientists to predict the impact
of global warming on the north. They had forecast the Arctic could be free of
summer ice as early as 2050.

On Monday the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center issued a seasonal wrap-up
that said the Arctic sea ice hit the lowest level in 2007 since satellite measurements
began in 1979. The average sea ice extent for the month of September was 4.28
million square kilometres, the lowest September on record, shattering the previous
record for the month, set in 2005, by 23 per cent. At the end of the melt season,
September 2007 sea ice was 39 per cent below the long-term average from 1979 to
2000.

- - - - - -

Food riots to worsen without global action: U.N.

Food riots in developing countries will spread unless world leaders take major steps
to reduce prices for the poor, the head of the United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organisation (FAO) said on Friday.
Despite a forecast 2.6 percent hike in global cereal output this year, record prices are
unlikely to fall, forcing poorer countries' food import bills up 56 percent and hungry
people on to the streets, FAO Director General Jacques Diouf said.
"The reality is that people are dying already in the riots," Diouf told a news
conference.
"They are dying because of their reaction to the situation and if we don't take the
necessary action there is certainly the possibility that they might die of starvation.
Naturally people won't be sitting dying of starvation, they will react."
Food riots have broken out in several African countries, Indonesia, the Philippines
and Haiti, the FAO said. Thirty-seven countries face food crises, it said in its latest
World Food Situation report.
"I am surprised that I have not been summoned to the U.N. Security Council as
many of the problems being discussed there would not have the same consequences
on peace, security and human rights (without the food crisis)," Diouf said.
Increased food demand from rapidly developing countries such as China and India,
the use of crops for biofuels, global stocks at 25-year lows and market speculation
are all blamed for pushing prices of staples like wheat, maize and rice to record highs.
While people in richer countries have noticed higher supermarket prices, the effect is
far more pronounced in developing countries where 50-60 percent of income goes to
food compared with just 10-20 percent in the developed world.
FOOD CRISIS SUMMIT
Diouf called on heads of state and government to attend a food crisis summit at FAO
headquarters in Rome on June 3-5.
He said the priority was a "massive seed transfer" -- to ensure farmers in poor
countries could buy seeds, fertilizer and feed at prices they could afford.
Other necessary measures include creating financial mechanisms to ensure poorer
food importing countries could continue to buy the food they need and give a larger
proportion of aid budgets to agriculture, Diouf said.
The comments echoed those of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who called
this week for a coordinated response to the food crisis which would include reaching
a deal on the Doha trade talks and the possible use of market-based risk management
instruments to avert food price volatility.
Diouf said it was normal to expect developing countries to put controls on food
exports, even if that exacerbated global food prices. The price of rice jumped 40
percent in three days recently when India and Vietnam banned exports, an FAO
official said.
"Export bans are a normal reaction for any government that has a prime responsibility
to its people," he said.
Expanded crop plantings this year should mean a 2.6 percent increase in cereal
output, with wheat up 6.8 percent on last year, FAO has forecast. But with only a
small proportion of that reaching the open market, the effect on prices will be
negligible as other prices pressure remain, it said.
(Editing by Chris Johnson)
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